Hurricane Season Starts Tommorrow

What can I say to that? Time flies when you're having fun. New Orleans is still a long way from recovering from Katrina and we're about to head into a new season of thrills and spills. The National Weather Service has this to say about the 2006 season:

"NOAA��s 2006 Atlantic hurricane season outlook indicates an 80% chance of an above-normal hurricane season, a 15% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 5% chance of a below-normal season. This outlook is produced by scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC), National Hurricane Center (NHC), and Hurricane Research Division (HRD). See NOAA��s definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons.

The outlook calls for a very active 2006 season, with 13-16 named storms, 8-10 hurricanes, and 4-6 major hurricanes. The likely range of the ACE index is 135%-205% of the median. This prediction indicates a continuation of above-normal activity that began in 1995. However, we do not currently expect a repeat of last year��s record season.

The predicted 2006 activity strongly reflects an expected continuation of conditions associated with the multi-decadal signal, which has favored above-normal Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995. These conditions include considerably warmer than normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs), lower wind shear, reduced sea level pressure, and a more conducive structure of the African easterly jet. An updated Atlantic hurricane outlook will be issued in early August, which begins the peak months (August-October) of the hurricane season."

Not a cheery outlook for sure. I don't think it will even take a hurricane near as powerful as Katrina to do serious damage to New Orleans this year. There's so many FEMA trailers out there that a big wind will blow them over.

I just saw an interview with the head of Homeland Security telling everyone how much better prepared for this season FEMA and the Federal Government is. Pardon me if I'm skepitcal. Forgive me if I don't believe a word he says.

I just finished Douglas Brinkley's THE GREAT DELUGE about Katrina last night. This should be required reading for anyone that wants to know anything about Katrina and the inept Government response to the tragedy.

I wonder why Florida can have such good response from FEMA, but the very next year New Orleans is a diaster. It couldn't have anything to do with the fact that W's brother is the governor of Florida. It couldn't have anything to do with the fact that New Orleans is mainly poor black who didn't vote for W. Nah, none of those things would matter, would they?

I've never been worried about hurricane seasons before. I always take them as they come. Katrina was actually the first hurricane I evacuated for. But this year feels different. I hope it's just lingering unease from Katrina.